Over the past few weeks, I have been diving into available information on Southeastern Conference football teams in preparation for this week's SEC Media Days in Dallas (Monday-Thursday).
One of the features of the event is the annual media poll, a prediction of how the upcoming season will unfold. I haven't done my homework on all the teams so that I could be confident in my poll selections, but it's a natural by-product of the research.
A few things about the poll:
(1.) Only a small percentage of those in attendance bother with the opportunity.
(2.) Most come into SEC Media Days with some idea of which teams are presumed best, worst, and somewhere in the middle (the rest of them).
(3.) Presumably, the poll was begun to be determined after attending media members had a better understanding of each team.
(4.) That didn't happen, in part because in the past those participating had to complete the poll before the end of the sessions.
Most arrive at SEC Media Days with an idea of what a preseason poll will look like. That's why Georgia was selected last year and why Alabama has been the choice in 13 ballots since the first one had Florida as preseason number one in 1992. The Tide has won it 11 times in those 32 seasons, nine of them in the dominant run of the Nick Saban Era.
In the past, selectors have done a West ranking, an East ranking, and a guess at the SEC champion. This year the poll will be 1 through 16 – no divisions -- and, since the league is retaining its championship game of the top two teams, making that choice.
Last year, Alabama was picked to win the West and finish second to Georgia, winner of the East. Those division picks were correct, but, of course, the Tide defeated the Bulldogs, 27-24.
By now, almost everyone knows that I make predictions based in great part in that I always think Alabama is going to win and I'm almost always right. Thus, on my ballot last year I had Bama to win the championship. Correct.
This year based on national polls, Georgia should be predicted as the 2024 SEC champion. The meeting, however, is in Dallas and there will be a large number of Texas media there, fewer than usual from states East of the Mississippi River. For that reason, I will not be surprised if Texas doesn't wear the preseason championship (cowboy) hat.
Some will use the national preseason polls as a basis for their SEC votes. A composite of 11 such polls, including 24/7, has the top ten as:
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Missouri
- Michigan
- Penn State
Other SEC teams making the poll of top 25 teams are 13. LSU, 14. Tennessee, 16. Oklahoma, and 25. Texas A&M.
Taking that as a base, the SEC ranking would be:
- Georgia
- Texas
- Ole Miss
- Alabama
- Missouri
- LSU
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma
- Texas A&M
Having watched those polls unfold since the day after Michigan defeated Washington for the 2023 national championship, I, too, was aware of how things look at the top. That, however, did not influence my decision so much as an examination of teams, their players, and their schedules.
My Big Three doesn't include Ole Miss. The primary factor in how the final ranking shakes out is how Georgia does in two tough road games, at Alabama and at Texas. My thought is that Bama beats Georgia (as it has in eight of the last nine meetings), but that Georgia rebounds to beat Texas. I'm ignoring tie-breakers, although my ranking would have the Tide vs. the Bulldogs for the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. Speaking of ties, there is no place on the SEC on-line poll for ties, so I'll work those out in Dallas.
I may or may not hear something at SEC Media Days that changes the poll as I see it today. That has happened occasionally. But until then:
1) Alabama 12-0 overall, 8-0 SEC
2.) (tie) Georgia 11-1, 7-1
2.) (tie) Texas 11-1, 7-1
4.) (tie) LSU 10-2, 6-2
4.) (tie) Ole Miss 10-2,6-2
4.) (tie) Texas A&M 10-2, 6-2
7.) (tie) Missouri 9-3, 5-3
7) (tie) Tennessee 9-3, 5-3
9.) Oklahoma 8-4, 4-4
10.) (tie) Auburn 7-5, 3-5
10.) (tie) Florida 6-6, 3-5
12.) Kentucky 6-6,2-6
13.) (tie) South Carolina 4-8,1-7
13.) (tie) Arkansas 4-8, 1-7
15.) (tie) Mississippi State 3-9, 0-8
15.) (tie) Vanderbilt 3-9,0-8
My big surprise? I expected Vandy to be 16th.
